The cruel, destructive, life-threatening cuts to healthcare, SNAP, and other vital government services are not the only horrors contained in the big, ugly reconciliation bill. The legislation is also a fiscal trainwreck that may prove calamitous to the long-term health of the United States economy.
“This bill will be the most expensive reconciliation bill in history, adding $4.1 trillion to the national debt through 2034. If its temporary provisions are extended permanently, that total would rise to $5.5 trillion. Under the bill as written, the national debt would rise from 100 percent of the economy today to 127 percent by 2034,” explains the conservative Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The group’s president warns, “In a massive fiscal capitulation, Congress has passed the single most expensive, dishonest, and reckless budget reconciliation bill ever—and it comes amidst an already alarming fiscal situation.” She adds:
“Never before has a piece of legislation been jammed through with such disregard for our fiscal outlook, the budget process, and the impact it will have on the well-being of the country and future generations.”
Hers is hardly the only voice warning about the bill’s fiscal recklessness. Our debt-to-GDP ratio will worsen considerably, interest rates will climb (as we struggle to sell off mounds of debt), and our entitlement trust funds will slide toward insolvency. “There is no economist anywhere, without a strong political agenda, who is saying that this bill is a positive for the economy. And the overwhelming view is that it is probably going to make the economy worse,” former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers argued on ABC’s “This Week.” Summers explained how the MAGA agenda simultaneously drags down growth and cuts the engine of innovation and productivity necessary for our long-term international economic advantage:
What we can forecast is that when people have to hold government debt instead of being able to invest it in new capital goods, new machinery, new buildings, that makes the economy less productive. What we can forecast is that when we’re investing less in research and development, investing less in our schools, that there is a negative impact on economic growth.
And if that were not ominous enough, Trump’s cruel, reckless, and chaotic immigration scheme will further diminish economic growth. As Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently testified, “One is growth in the labor force, more people working, and the other thing is productivity, how much do they produce per hour of work. And when you significantly slow the growth of the labor force, you will slow the growth of the economy.” He added his view, “I think that growth will slow and actually is slowing this year, and that’s one of the reasons.”
Undocumented workers make up nearly 5 percent of the workforce, but a far larger share of workers in specific industries. “Nearly 1 in 5 household workers and landscapers, 16% of crop workers and meat processors, 14% of apparel manufacturing workers and 13% of construction workers were undocumented immigrants,” CBS News reports, citing a recent Pew study. We’re already seeing empty construction sites and farms where workers are afraid to show up. Ensuing labor shortages will drive up the cost of everything from housing to food to healthcare; U.S. companies will have fewer domestic customers for goods and services.
Moreover, inflicting harm on tens of millions of Americans and on the economy writ large, unsurprisingly, is not a political winner. Polling during the House and Senate debates showed the measure to be deeply unpopular with Americans. Now, a survey from the University of Maryland tells us that a majority of both Republicans and Democrats want a budget that does not keep the Trump tax cuts for those making $500,000; does not cut SNAP; does not increase the defense budget; and does not lard up spending on immigration enforcement. Over half would not cut Medicaid; even Republicans favor only a tiny reduction (1.3%), not a trillion-dollar cut.
Standard fare among Beltway pundits is to declare that Democrats in 2026 must run on a positive agenda, not merely opposition to MAGA. Balderdash. The party out of power rarely needs a specific agenda to rack up big wins in a midterm. The incumbent party suffered big losses in 2006, 2010, and 2018 when the opposition ran simply on, well, opposition.
Moreover, when the incumbent party manages to get just about everything wrong, the positive agenda becomes “Do the opposite.” Looking ahead to 2026, Democrats agenda writes itself:
Roll back the Trump tax cuts for the super-rich.
Repair Medicaid and SNAP. Restore subsidies/credits for the Affordable Care Act exchanges.
Take back the tariff power, then eliminate across-the-board consumer taxes (tariffs).
Restore funding for research and green energy.
Restore funding for life-saving services (e.g. FEMA, NOAA).
Meanwhile, Democrats can champion an effort to right-size immigration enforcement; prioritize deportation of criminals; and defund Marines and/National Guard occupation of cities absent a majority vote from Congress. In addition, Democrats can vow to defund deportation to places like El Salvador, Sudan, and other non-home countries, and, likewise, discontinue funding any facility that does not afford lawmakers unannounced access and meet basic health and safety requirements. They can also propose substantially increasing the number of immigration judges to expedite deportations.
The benefits of the “Do the Opposite” agenda is two-fold. First, it will reverse atrocious MAGA policies. Second, it will find bipartisan reception among voters. Let Republican incumbents defend their fiscal recklessness, vicious attack on our safety nets, tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires, and elimination of life-saving services. If they are so proud of their handiwork, they should be happy to run on it.
